With the renewal of the negotiations between Iran and the Western powers, in an effort to renew the agreement on the nuclear activities of Iran, the background noise from the two main players in this dragged out conflict, Israel and Iran, is becoming stronger and stronger and is at times overwhelming the news from the Vienna negotiations.
“Israeli Military readying for plan B if talks fail”. Israel is stepping up its training exercises, to levels it has not seen for several years, including reserve troops. The Israeli Navy took part in an exercise with U.S. UAE and Bahrain Navel forces. Air drills are being held with European Air forces in a hint that these countries would stand by Israel in times of need.
“We can attack Iran tomorrow if needed”. The incoming Israeli Air force commander thought it necessary to be explicit and clear about where Israel would turn in case and even if it apparently is unclear how successful such attacks would be, their mention only is at least in this stage, sufficient.
On the opposite side, there are clear threats by Iran. Recently a map of Israel was published with all the targets that will be attacked in case Israel makes “Just one wrong move”. The numerous military exercises held by Iran include the demonstration of ballistic capability missile capability, both short- and long-range as well as “killer drones” of which Iran claims to have many. In the last “exercise”, a simulated attack was carried out on the Dimona nuclear reactor in Israel with the aim to cause nuclear destruction.
So what is the “man in the Street” to think about these explicit threats? No doubt, both sides have the leadership, both political and military, that is capable and willing to take the conflict to a violent level, even if the outcome for either side is very uncertain except that it will be disastrous. Any military action that will arise from this conflagration will be very, very different from anything the Iranian or Israeli people have ever seen and whoever will “win”, the suffering and destruction will be massive and that is not et talking into account what will happen if this spills over to the rest of the Middle East.
Isn’t it time for “Responsible Adults” to step in? Isn’t it time the world takes action to prevent a possible military disaster that may destroy the Middle East? The Americans are very careful to maintain that Israel is an independent nation and must make its own decisions but on the other hand, are not allowing the early delivery of aerial refueling planes that are necessary for a successful Israeli raid on Iran. Will that be enough to stop Israel? It is doubtful. Israel still has refueling planes available, even though they are old and even secret agreements with (newly acquired) partners in the Middle East for the use of their air bases cannot be ruled out. But the pressure exerted by the U.S. (albeit off the grid) to prevent a military confrontation may still be sufficient to reign in Israel.
Iran does at this point not seem pressed by its own “Adult” and it “Strategic Alliance” with Russia appears to be strengthening its offensive behavior rather than controlling it. Russia may have intentions for the Middle East that have not been made clear but its actions in Syria, with and without Iran do indicate its desire to increase its influence in the region.
So where does that leave Israel? Should it be worried and apprehensive that an Iranian attack may be imminent? And thus maybe justify a pre-emptive strike (Israel’s big strategic success in the “67 war)?
Again, for the man in the street it is hard to evaluate and little more is left than put their trust in their leadership and hope (and pray?) for the best.
It appears doubtful though that the explicit threats are in any way productive and even Bennett, Israel’s prime minister, remarked when asked about in particular the remarks by the incoming Air force chief, that “it is better to talk less and act more”. Does that mean he believes action is necessary? Or did he simply mean that Israeli general should keep their mouth shut and leave political issues to the politicians? He himself, as well as his Foreign minister Lapid, have stated publicly that Israel can and will go it alone if the Vienna talks fail. Is a threat by a politician stronger than that of a general?
It is obvious that the situation is extremely complicated and its outcome is far from clear. Israel has to defend itself and Israelis should be thankful that its army is (apparently) capable of doing so. But Iran? Is it possible that it also feels itself threatened by Israeli to an extend that for them military action is needed and justified? What should give them the guarantee that Israel will not do anything stupid and attack Iran, even if it is only the nuclear sites? Even with the knowledge and understanding that public threats are mostly considered psychological warfare, there is no way of knowing what Israel’s leadership will do and it should be remembered: Israel is (still) the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons. Even if the use of those is inconceivable and extremely unlikely (the last time its use was suggested was to Golda Meir at the beginning of the Yom Kippur war, and she refused to even consider it), from an Iranian point of view this may look very different.
I hope you found this article interesting and I welcome any comments you may have.
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