During the Iran war (currently in a Cease-Fire state) the Israeli Army, and in particular, the Israeli Air Force has performed extensive bombing actions in Iran, destroying large areas of military importance, including rocket launchers, nuclear sites, and bomb manufacturers, as well as severe damage to equipment and manpower. In a matter of weeks, extensive damage was done to military as well as civilian sites and together with the U.S. Army, the results of the war until now have been celebrated as an enormous success.
And there is little doubt, the actions of the Air Force and its courageous crews have been impressive and a large military success, which also established Israel as a regional power that needs to be taken into account whenever military confrontations with Israel are considered.
But, beyond the successful military activities, is the war really a victory over Iran? Effectively, the war has been controlled and dictated by American President, Donald Trump and he and his team have been in “negotiations” for weeks trying to reach an agreement. The American President has serious problems with the American people, mostly because of the skyrocketed prices at the American market but also the general opinion of the Americans is that this is not their war and it should be ended as quickly as possible. While the Iranians are stalling in the negotiations, as they always do, it is quite clear that in the end Trump will make a deal.
A deal there will be but a victory? When looking at the war goals established from the beginning, three issues stand out. The destruction of the nuclear capabilities of the Iranian Regime, the destruction of rockets and their launchers and the ending of the use of proxies by the Iranians, in particular the Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon. None of these of these major goals have until now been achieved and it is doubtful that they can be reached, even if Trump would decide to return to fighting, which is doubtful. The nuclear capacities of Iran have been damaged, but the simple fact is that they are still holding on to more than 400 kg of enriched uranium (to a level of 60%) and this would enable them to make a nuclear weapon in 9-12 months. The Iranians have so far refused to discuss this, claiming that it is buried deep underground and thus hard to obtain by the Americans. The rockets and their launchers are still capable of reaching Israel and beyond, with estimates varying from 50 to 60% of the rockets and about 150 launchers. And the proxies? Since the cease-fire, Israel has become more and more involved with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the population in Northern Israel is suffering under its impact. Iran has demanded that an end to the war must include the activities in Lebanon and Trump has ordered a cease-fire also in Lebanon, which seriously limits Israel’s options for the safety of the residents, with Hezbollah sending daily dozens of explosive drones to Israel’s troops and the border communities.
Thus with all the bravery of the pilots, their intensive bombing campaign (and of course the Home Front, that stopped many of the rockets that were fired at Israel) still the war cannot be called a victory and if Trump indeed decides to reach an agreement and end the war, it needs to be called a failure, with none of its primary objectives reached.
So who is to blame? The Israeli Army? They fought like heroes even after two years of war in the Gaza strip, with the current war in Lebanon as an extra. The Army has been following orders from the politicians from the beginning and did what they were told to do.
Trump? The American president has been extremely careful to avoid American casualties which would have surely lost him all support in the U.S., so at the time, bombing looked like the best solution. But his threats to put soldiers on the ground, while being repeated numerous times, seems like an empty one and is most likely not going to happen.
The Israeli Prime Minister, while for political reasons he would be interested in continuing the war, is being constrained by Donald Trump, who is not even allowing the continuation of the war in Lebanon, while the residents in the north are suffering. And Trump used all his power to stop Netanyahu and even screamed insults at him during their last phone call. Which made Netanyahu give in and promise that the war in Lebanon would be halted as well.
And in the end (which appears to be the end) this war was a strategic failure, with all the dangers still in place with as an ultimate effect that now Iran has become even more motivated to retaliate against Israel with most of their rockets still in place and their nuclear capabilities not seriously damaged.
I hope you found this article interesting and I welcome any comments you may have.
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