Independence Day is behind us, and life is (for now) returning to its normal routine, at least until Shavuot in another month. Among the traditions of Israel’s Independence Day, in addition to the Air Force Fly-over, the ceremony at Mount Herzl, the barbeques and the fireworks, is the publication by the Israeli census bureau, of the statistics on the Israeli population.
Most of these statistics are just what they are, somewhat boring numbers, telling us that the Israeli population stands at just over 9.3 million people, of which 78% is born in Israel, 28% is younger than 14, and 12% is older than 65, in addition to many other statistics, which, unless you are looking for something specific, you take for granted.
Among those though, there is one statistic which merits looking at a bit more closely, even though most Israelis will dismiss it as irrelevant and of the local press, only the Jerusalem Post deemed it interesting enough to mention it specifically.
The percentage of Jews in the Israeli population stands currently at 73.9%, which is more than half a percent less than three years ago at Israel’s seventieth Independence Day and 8% less than at the establishment of the State in 1948. While the Jewish population segment increased significantly during the first 10-15 years of the State, and reached almost 90% of the overall population in 1955, since then it has consistently decreased despite the waves of immigration that brought large numbers of Jews to Israel, especially from Arab countries and later from Russia and its satellite states. Apparently, the Arab population is still growing at a significantly higher rate than the Jewish population, notwithstanding the high birthrate among the Orthodox Jewish population.
The Arab population stands today at just over 20% and even though Arab Israelis do have voting rights and Arab political parties are represented in the Knesset, only during the turmoil of the past two years, with four election rounds, has the Arab population started to demand from their representatives to pay more attention to their daily hardships and the demands to (finally) take care of the ever increasing violence in the Arab cities, is just one expression of this. The Jewish parties are paying attention as well, and do no longer automatically exclude Arab parties from the decision-making process and the government coalitions (except for the hardcore racists Smotrich and Ben-Gvir). A new era may be dawning in Israel, whereby the Arab population will become actively involved in the political process and will have the strength and the urge, to stand up for themselves.
It is rather obvious that (most) Jewish parties are at the moment paying no more than lip service to their Arab counterparts because as it turns out, the Arab parties, and in particular the United Arab List, of Mansour Abbas, finds itself in a pivot position and is currently exploiting this as much as possible. But on the other hand, the Jewish right-wing parties (and they are still a majority, together with the Religious parties) did not abandon one of the basic goals they have set for themselves ever since 1967: the liberation of all “Jewish” land and the establishment of the “Land of Greater Israel”. Attempts (or perceived attempts) by Netanyahu recently, were thwarted by the Americans but this does not mean that the Jewish right-wing stopped dreaming about it.
But what does such a dream do for the demographics? While the numbers for the population in the Occupied Territories are not entirely accurate, the number of Jews living today in the West Bank is about 480,000, while the number of Arabs is estimated at three million. Some simple calculation would reveal that if Israel would today annex the West Bank, Jews would be barely 60% of the total population of “The Greater Israel”, with approximately 5 million Arabs making up the balance (a small percentage of Israelis today are registered neither as Arabs or Jews but the overall numbers will not be significantly affected by this).
These statistics leave only two options open for the future of the State of Israel. If Israel goes ahead with the annexation of the Occupied Territories, it will stop being a Jewish State, and a serious revision of the political status quo will be required, with most likely Jews having come to terms with an Arab government, supported by “Leftists” or going ahead with the dream of the right wing extremists and establishing an Apartheid State in which Arabs have very limited rights which will not include voting rights or the right to be elected (at least not to the central governing body).
No doubt, may “interim” options will be considered, like they were in the past. Autonomy, separate governing systems, a presidential government, or any other as of yet unexplored denials of democracy, but in the end it will come done to making a choice between democracy and human rights, or Apartheid and discrimination.
The statistics are important because they give Israel the opportunity to determine its future, both as a democracy or as an Occupier. And, while for many it will still be very hard to admit, the best solution by far, would be the establishment of an independent Palestinian State in the Occupied Territories like has been envisioned by some and should have been accomplished in July 1967. It is still inconceivable that the majority of Israelis would agree to have their country turn into an Apartheid state. The preferred option would be a smaller, pre-67 Israel, with a trend of larger involvement of the Arab majority in the democratic process of a Jewish State.
But history teaches us that in many cases the extremists must have their day before sensibility and human decency takes over. Does that mean that Smotrich or Bennet will become Prime Minister soon?
We will probably have another round of elections. And another. And another………..
I hope you found this article interesting and I welcome any comments you may have.
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