The news of the impending peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, is only a couple of days old but there have been major changes to both the perception of the deal and the reality of this U.S.-brokered deal.
It turns out that everybody has its own interpretation of the agreement (that hasn’t been signed yet) and that all parties are emphasizing different aspects, while trying to hide parts of the deal that may be less acceptable by their constituencies and denying issues that come out anyway. It is still very unclear what the pending agreement really entails, and it is uncertain that we will ever be told specific details until the moment reality will confront us with it.
For the UAE, that has had unofficial and below board relations with Israel for a long time, the aspect of the agreement that was highlighted most is the fact that the agreement will stop the annexation by Israel of Occupied Palestinian territory and anything else “is still under discussion”.
For Israel, (and Netanyahu), the fact that a peace agreement has been reached with a third Arab country was presented as the major (and only) aspect of the deal that is of importance and in the long-term interest of Israel.
For the United States (and Trump) the fact that the Administration has been able to hammer out a peace agreement between Israel and an Arab state, (after the complete failure of the “Deal of the Century”), was presented as the headline.
But very quickly it became clear that there are additional aspects to this peace agreement that may be hard to swallow by some of the parties, apparently particularly by Israel.
The cancelation of the Annexation could not be hidden by Netanyahu because it was used by the UAE as the justification for this deal, so the first storm in Israel mainly was caused by this (not so small) detail.
The reactions in the rightist camp and from the settlers of the Occupied Lands came swift and laden with venom. Even those supposed to be Netanyahu cronies, expressed their astonishment and anger very sharply. For instance, Yuri Edelstein (remember that disgrace to Israel democracy?) vowed that he “would never allow a Palestinian State” and Yossi Dagan of the Samaria Local Council uttered similar empty statements, including that Netanyahu had sold them out, and it would lead to the end of his rule.
And then came the story about the F-35 warplanes. Did Netanyahu think he could keep that hidden from the public in Israel (including his defense minister!)? The Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth published this small detail which Netanyahu was quick to dismiss as Fake news. But from the Emirates it was reported that Netanyahu knew about the demand and that the agreement would not have been reached without American agreement to sell the planes and Israeli consent to such a sale.
The discussion about the preservation of Israeli military superiority that the U.S. is committed to quickly became ugly and confusing, with in the end also the White House consenting that the sale is being discussed and that the UAE has the money to buy these planes (which is of course a major issue for the battered U.S. economy). In Israel, after the noise about the fact that Netanyahu kept the whole deal, including the sale of the F-35’s from both the defense minister and the army, subsided, the debate became heated as to the question if such a sale will indeed affect the Israeli military superiority, and of course also here there were major disagreements.
The way it looks now, Israel has been asked, and agreed to two major concessions in order to reach a peace agreement with the UAE, and that Netanyahu was the one who agreed to those concessions even if he even now keeps denying them.
In the meantime, in the euphoria that the peace agreement has created in Israel (despite the cost apparently) other Arab countries are being suggested as next in line. Also in Washington the possibility of additional countries joining this agreement or establishing some kind of relations with Israel, is actively discussed. Our Foreign minister, Ashkenazi talked on the phone with his Oman counterpart amid rumors that Oman will be next and very quickly so. Trump mentioned Saudi Arabia as a possible interested party in a peace agreement, while even from Sudan came a statement that negotiations are moving forward (which was later fully denied, but who knows who tells the truth anymore).
Interesting and noteworthy is the fact that at least some Arab countries made completely different statements. Kuwait was quick to claim that they would be “the last” to sign an agreement with Israel, and Saudi Arabia (despite Trump’s remarks) was explicitly clear and said it would not normalize ties with Israel without a solution to the Palestinian problem.
It is impossible for a simple Israeli citizen to know what is happening behind closed doors, but it seems a pattern is emerging. Arab nations, in particular the Sunni dominated ones, while attempting to maintain solidarity with the Palestinians, have come to the conclusion that it is time to settle things with Israel. It is possible that the initiative for this has come from Washington, where Kushner, the senior advisor to Donald Trump on the Middle East is active and sometimes innovative as well, but it is clear that the U.S. will be wanting to assist in changing the Middle East, in particular since all earlier attempts have failed. But at the same time, the U.S. will have to provide the incentive, or the coercion, to have Israel agree to these developments, because the Arab Nations, just like the UAE will want a price for their peace. It will proceed in steps, the small nations, with small concessions, (like the canceling of the annexation for peace with the UAE) but it will end with major Israeli concessions and will culminate in the establishment of a Palestinian State in adjusted ’67 borders. And just like with this first deal with the UAE, the U.S. will force the concessions down Israel’s throat and there is nothing Netanyahu, (or anybody else) will be able to do to stop it.
So in the end, the principle of “Land for Peace” will work and Israel will have peaceful relations with most countries in the region (except Iran of course) and in particular with one, new nation, called Palestine.
And thus Peres was right in the end: a “New Middle East” will be born.
